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Stable understory microclimates within undisturbed rainforests are often considered refugia against climate change. However, this assumption contrasts with emerging evidence of Neotropical bird population declines in intact rainforests. We assessed the vulnerability of resident rainforest birds to climatic variability, focusing on dry season severity characterized by hotter temperatures and reduced rainfall. Analyzing 4264 individual bird captures over 27 years, we found that harsher Amazonian dry seasons significantly reduced apparent survival for 24 of 29 species, with longer-lived species being more strongly affected. Our model predicted that a 1°C increase in average dry season temperature would reduce the mean apparent survival of the understory bird community by 63%. These findings directly link climate change to declining bird survival in the Amazon, challenging the notion that pristine rainforests can fully protect their biodiversity under increasingly severe climate conditions. 

Understanding the distribution and extent of suitable habitats is critical for the conservation of endangered and endemic taxa. Such knowledge is limited for many Central African species, including the rare and globally threatened Grey-necked Picathartes Picathartes oreas, one of only two species in the family Picathartidae endemic to the forests of Central Africa. Despite growing concerns about land-use change resulting in fragmentation and loss of forest cover in the region, neither the extent of suitable habitat nor the potential species’ distribution is well known. We combine 339 (new and historical) occurrence records of Grey-necked Picathartes with environmental variables to model the potential global distribution. We used a Maximum Entropy modelling approach that accounted for sampling bias. Our model suggests that Grey-necked Picathartes distribution is strongly associated with steeper slopes and high levels of forest cover, while bioclimatic, vegetation health, and habitat condition variables were all excluded from the final model. We predicted 17,327 km2 of suitable habitat for the species, of which only 2,490 km2 (14.4%) are within protected areas where conservation designations are strictly enforced. These findings show a smaller global distribution of predicted suitable habitat for the Grey-necked Picathartes than previously thought. This work provides evidence to inform a revision of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List status, and may warrant upgrading the status of the species from “Near Threatened” to “Vulnerable”.